Highlights
Quote
Clean Copy
5.96K Followers
Summary
- The yen carry trade’s size is far smaller than feared, at $261 billion versus claims of trillions.
- Recent data shows the yen carry trade is unwinding gradually, with no year-over-year growth in the last quarter.
- Macro indicators suggest the Bank of Japan may go neutral in 2026, easing pressure on the carry trade.
- While US equity market risk from the carry trade is limited, US Treasury market exposure warrants continued monitoring.
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images
Introduction
Nearly a year and a half ago, the yen carry trade spooked global markets when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates. The move created major volatility in global equity markets and a
This article was written by
5.96K Followers
**Analyst’s Disclosure:**I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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No expert here…but it seems like the answer to “How big is the yen carry trade?” depends on how narrowly you define it. The implosion of markets in early August 2024 suggests it is substantial. Below the asterisks is an excerpt from an August 2024 Reuters article, www.reuters.com/…
************************************************HOW LARGE IS THE YEN CARRY TRADE?
No one is quite sure. Using the narrowest definition of a pure currency carry trade, analysts point to the 4.54 trillion) at the end of March, Ministry of Finance data shows - more than half in interest rate-sensitive debt assets, albeit most of it long term.
Disagree with this article?Submit your own.To report a factual error in this article, .Your feedback matters to us!
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About SP500 Ticker
| Symbol | Last Price | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| SP500 | 6,944.82 | 0.62% |
Open
6,908.03
Prev. Close
$6,902.05
More on SP500
Black Swan Event: NATO Collapse Over Greenland
S&P 500, Dow close at all-time high as stocks climb on tech trade revival
S&P 500 notches fresh all-time high with 7,000 now in sight
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Annotated Copy
5.96K Followers
Summary
- The yen carry trade’s size is far smaller than feared, at $261 billion versus claims of trillions.
- Recent data shows the yen carry trade is unwinding gradually, with no year-over-year growth in the last quarter.
- Macro indicators suggest the Bank of Japan may go neutral in 2026, easing pressure on the carry trade.
- While US equity market risk from the carry trade is limited, US Treasury market exposure warrants continued monitoring.
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images
Introduction
Nearly a year and a half ago, the yen carry trade spooked global markets when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates. The move created major volatility in global equity markets and a
This article was written by
5.96K Followers
**Analyst’s Disclosure:**I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
If you type a company or ETF ticker symbol in capital letters we will automatically link to the symbol page. You can remove the link by deleting the $ in the comment.
No expert here…but it seems like the answer to “How big is the yen carry trade?” depends on how narrowly you define it. The implosion of markets in early August 2024 suggests it is substantial. Below the asterisks is an excerpt from an August 2024 Reuters article, www.reuters.com/…
************************************************HOW LARGE IS THE YEN CARRY TRADE?
No one is quite sure. Using the narrowest definition of a pure currency carry trade, analysts point to the 4.54 trillion) at the end of March, Ministry of Finance data shows - more than half in interest rate-sensitive debt assets, albeit most of it long term.
Disagree with this article?Submit your own.To report a factual error in this article, .Your feedback matters to us!
Top 10 ‘Strong Buy’-rated Stocks for 2026
In this new report, our VP of Quantitative Strategy analyzes Seeking Alpha’s Top Stocks for 2026.
In 2025 alone, the Top 10 Stocks returned 50.84% vs. 16.94% for the S&P 500.*
Access the report now and explore this year’s high-potential stocks.
*Performance as of November 28, 2025. Past performance is no guarantee for future results.
About SP500 Ticker
| Symbol | Last Price | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| SP500 | 6,944.82 | 0.62% |
Open
6,908.03
Prev. Close
$6,902.05
More on SP500
Black Swan Event: NATO Collapse Over Greenland
S&P 500, Dow close at all-time high as stocks climb on tech trade revival
S&P 500 notches fresh all-time high with 7,000 now in sight
Citadel’s Scott Rubner’s case for the ‘January effect’
You can’t control the market. But you can control how you invest.
Breaking stock news is now free. Create your account to stay informed—and explore the insights behind every move.